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- W2094520873 abstract "There is evidence that human influence may be forcing the global ecosystem towards a rapid, irreversible, planetary-scale shift into a state unknown in human experience. Most forecasts of how the biosphere will change in response to human activity are rooted in projecting trajectories. Such models tend not anticipate critical transitions or tipping points, although recent work indicates a high probability of those taking place. And, at a local scale, ecosystems are known to shift abruptly between states when critical thresholds are passed. These authors review the evidence from across ecology and palaeontology that such a transition is being approached on the scale of the entire biosphere. They go on to suggest how biological forecasting might be improved to allow us to detect early warning signs of critical transitions on a global, as well as local, scale. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes." @default.
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- W2094520873 date "2012-06-06" @default.
- W2094520873 modified "2023-10-11" @default.
- W2094520873 title "Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere" @default.
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