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- W2096041251 abstract "Conventional Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) has been criticized both for its questionabletheoretical basis, and for its failure in extreme event prediction. An important researchissue for FFA is the exploration of models that have theoretical/explanatory value as the firststep towards more accurate predictive attempts. Self-similar approaches offer one such alternative,with a plausible theoretical basis in complexity theory that has demonstrable wide applicabilityacross the geophysical sciences. This paper explores a simple self-similar approach to the predictionof extreme floods. Fifty river gauging records from the USA exhibiting an outlier event werestudied. Fitting a simple power law (PL) relation to events with return period of 10 years or greaterresulted in more accurate discharge and return period estimates for outlier events relative to theLog-Pearson III model. Similar success in predicting record events is reported for 12 long-termrainfall records from the UK. This empirical success is interpreted as evidence that self-similaritymay well represent the underlying physical processes generating hydrological variables. Thesefindings have important consequences for the prediction of extreme flood events; the PL modelproduces return period estimates that are far more conservative than conventional distributions." @default.
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- W2096041251 date "2006-01-01" @default.
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- W2096041251 title "Power-law extreme flood frequency" @default.
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- W2096041251 doi "https://doi.org/10.1144/gsl.sp.2006.261.01.11" @default.
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