Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2099183722> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 97 of
97
with 100 items per page.
- W2099183722 endingPage "587" @default.
- W2099183722 startingPage "567" @default.
- W2099183722 abstract "At least since Thucydides, students of international relations have sought rational explanations for the advent of war. Rationalist explanations assume purposive action; states are said to make reasoned decisions about the use of force. Although rationalist explanations have proven persuasive, durable, and offer the basis for cumulative theorizing, they also imply substantial limits on what we can know about war. I show that the most general rationalist explanation for war also dictates that the onset of war is theoretically indeterminate. We cannot predict in individual cases whether states will go to war, because war is typically the consequence of variables that are unobservable ex ante, both to us as researchers and to the participants. Thinking probabilistically continues to offer the opportunity to assess international conflict empirically. However, the realization that uncertainty is necessary theoretically to motivate war is much different from recognizing that the empirical world contains a stochastic element. Accepting uncertainty as a necessary condition of war implies that all other variables—however detailed the explanation—serve to eliminate gradations of irrelevant alternatives. We can progressively refine our ability to distinguish states that may use force from those that are likely to remain at peace, but anticipating wars from a pool of states that appear willing to fight will remain problematic. For example, we may achieve considerable success in anticipating crises, but our ability to predict which crises will become wars will probably prove little better than the naive predictions of random chance. The need for uncertainty to account for war means that the same conditions thought to account for war must also exist among states not destined to fight. Otherwise, states themselves will differentiate between opponents in a way that either removes the motives for war or restores uncertainty. It has long been accepted that social processes possess an element of uncertainty, but the centrality of uncertainty to rationalist explanations for war means that the advent of war is itself stochastic. War is literally in the “error term.”" @default.
- W2099183722 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2099183722 creator A5043957165 @default.
- W2099183722 date "1999-01-01" @default.
- W2099183722 modified "2023-10-03" @default.
- W2099183722 title "War Is in the Error Term" @default.
- W2099183722 cites W1972181371 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W1974495186 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W1978181693 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W1987673617 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W1993054312 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2010616166 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2019264587 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2047156377 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2059818569 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2063829818 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2090637028 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2094736317 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2116187373 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2116988722 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W2144867725 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4235169075 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4235935640 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4244085334 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4250839026 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4254553025 @default.
- W2099183722 cites W4319590673 @default.
- W2099183722 doi "https://doi.org/10.1162/002081899550995" @default.
- W2099183722 hasPublicationYear "1999" @default.
- W2099183722 type Work @default.
- W2099183722 sameAs 2099183722 @default.
- W2099183722 citedByCount "222" @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222012 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222013 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222014 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222015 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222016 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222017 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222018 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222019 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222020 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222021 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222022 @default.
- W2099183722 countsByYear W20991837222023 @default.
- W2099183722 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W2099183722 hasAuthorship W2099183722A5043957165 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C118084267 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C122251271 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C139719470 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C190253527 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C200288055 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C2780695315 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C2780791683 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C61797465 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C62520636 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConcept C81631423 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C118084267 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C121332964 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C122251271 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C139719470 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C149782125 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C162324750 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C17744445 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C190253527 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C199539241 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C200288055 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C2780695315 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C2780791683 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C61797465 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C62520636 @default.
- W2099183722 hasConceptScore W2099183722C81631423 @default.
- W2099183722 hasIssue "3" @default.
- W2099183722 hasLocation W20991837221 @default.
- W2099183722 hasOpenAccess W2099183722 @default.
- W2099183722 hasPrimaryLocation W20991837221 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W1966628970 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W1972291908 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W1994634535 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W2092067043 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W2099183722 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W2268700903 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W2345038814 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W2899084033 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W3123821259 @default.
- W2099183722 hasRelatedWork W3125766537 @default.
- W2099183722 hasVolume "53" @default.
- W2099183722 isParatext "false" @default.
- W2099183722 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W2099183722 magId "2099183722" @default.
- W2099183722 workType "article" @default.