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- W2100125668 abstract "Returns from a zero-investment portfolio that is long in US firms whose dividends alter during a year, and short in firms whose dividends remain the same, produces positive returns in 52 of the 53 years between 1955 and 2007. These positive returns are related to expected inflation, which appears to contribute between 3 and 7 percentage points to the annual nominal return.We suggest that this is partly due to the signaling role of quarterly dividends. We argue that the greater the tendency of a company to smooth its dividends, the less likely are its shareholders to adjust their estimates of future nominal dividend growth in line with inflation. The more the company smooths its dividends, the greater the lag in incorporating current inflation into the dividend; and the less informative they are about future earnings. If dividend smoothing does affect the extent to which shareholders adjust their expectations in response to expected inflation, we would expect to see this effect show up in stock returns.We relate smoothing of annual dividends to smoothing of quarterly dividends, identifying extreme smoothers as those who pay four identical quarterly dividends in a 12-month period. We find no evidence that paying four such identical dividends is a signal of a firm in trouble; rather that such a policy reduces the informativeness of dividends about future earnings and growth. We also find no evidence that the extreme smoothers have unusual characteristics that would cause investors in these stocks to require from these stocks, ex ante, lower returns, or returns that are less responsive to inflation." @default.
- W2100125668 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2100125668 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2100125668 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2100125668 title "Which Stocks are Inflation-Proof?" @default.
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- W2100125668 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787264" @default.
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