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• W2102384951 abstract "A fully stochastic model is used to study the phenomena of recurrence and extinction associated with childhood infections. This model is also used to investigate the properties of the corresponding deterministic model. We conclude that recurrent epidemics have such intricate behaviour that they cannot be studied with deterministic models; recognition of demographic stochasticity is necessary to understand them. The damping associated with the oscillations appearing in the deterministic model is shown to be a measure of the stochastic variability of the time between successive outbreaks. Furthermore, chaotic deterministic models for recurrent epidemics are shown to be unrealistic. The mechanism that drives chaos in these models is an unjustified mathematical approximation introduced in going from the stochastic to the deterministic formulation." @default.
• W2102384951 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2102384951 creator A5048679024 @default.
• W2102384951 date "2002-01-01" @default.
• W2102384951 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W2102384951 title "Measles Outbreaks are not Chaotic" @default.
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• W2102384951 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-0065-6_6" @default.
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