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• W2103236062 abstract "*In order to estimate the risk to the public due to debris from accidents of space vehicles, it is necessary to know the locations of people and the type of protection offered to them by structures—called “sheltering”. For a quantitative risk analysis, a sheltering model must include two components: a description of the structure types that provide protection to the population (quantitatively, the vulnerability of structures to debris) and an allocation of how many people are in each structure type at each location. For the first aspect, fast-running building vulnerability models have been previously developed that estimate the casualty area for people in structures, and they account for the differing effect of debris of varying mass, impact velocity, and area. This paper presents a method for the second part of this topic: determining the allocation of the population among structures, and is specifically for large regions where direct observation or surveys are impractical. Models derived from the method obtain good accuracy by estimating quantitative values from subjective or qualitative data for specific subgroups of the population, then use existing quantitative demographic data to derive a sheltering distribution for the whole population. In this method of deriving a sheltering model, there are four data components: demographic/economic statistics, structural/engineering reports, climate effects, and georeferencing information. This method allows for an effective application of available quantitative data in combination with qualitative estimates. Sheltering assignment for large regions must include some engineering judgment; to obtain the highest accuracy in the model, it is important that judgments are made for the smallest practical population group. This method also directly includes appropriate factors to allow easy assessment of sensitivity of results to the most significant uncertainties in the sheltering model. Two examples, one using U.S. Census data and one using a variety of data for non-U.S. regions, are presented to demonstrate the application of the method." @default.
• W2103236062 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2103236062 date "2005-06-19" @default.
• W2103236062 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W2103236062 title "Large Region Population Sheltering Models for Space Debris Risk Analysis" @default.
• W2103236062 cites W1541771177 @default.
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• W2103236062 doi "https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2005-6322" @default.
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