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• W2105110641 abstract "Indonesia’s current account fell into deficit in late 2011 for the first time since the 1997-8 Asian financial crisis. The current account balance subsequently dropped to -2.78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012, to -3.27 percent of GDP in 2013, and -2.97 percent of GDP for the first three quarters of 2014, with most of the deterioration happening in the balance in goods and services trade, which averaged 3.1 percent of GDP in the period 2000-2007, and fell to 1.8 percent during 2008-2013. Prior to the 1998 crisis, Indonesia experienced three decades of robust economic growth and reduction in trade barriers, leading to an increase in integration in the global economy. The recent shift into deficit has been based on two structural developments and a combination of adverse exogenous and policy shocks. First, since the early 2000s Indonesia’s economy has grown faster than its major trading partners. Second, while investment growth has been generally strong, gross national saving have stagnated around 32 percent of GDP since 2009, dropping to 30 percent in 2013. The evidence suggests that a current account deficit is normal in the sense that investment needs exceed domestic savings. As long as investments generate sufficient growth, meeting the resulting financing costs should not be a concern. The analysis presented in this report suggests that Indonesia’s recent current account deficit results from the interaction of short, medium, and long run factors that can be grouped into four blocks: external shocks, domestic policies, international integration, and stage of development and demographics." @default.
• W2105110641 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2105110641 date "2015-07-01" @default.
• W2105110641 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2105110641 title "Indonesia - Current account assessment" @default.
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