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- W2107266379 abstract "Relevance The analyses and forecasts of the annual number of road casualties are relevant for outlining road safety policies. With analyses we try to understand the road safety developments. This involves the relation between the observed annual numbers of casualties and external factors. These are developments in distance travelled, safety measures and other factors (weather, light conditions) in the past. Insight in these relations enables the evaluation of past policies. We also try to estimation the expected future number of casualties for different scenarios for the development of distance travelled and road safety programmes. The results can be used to adjust road safety policies or to develop new policies. Background Common road safety models used to describe the development of the past or future number of road casualties, often treated the total (aggregated) annual number of casualties as a dependent variable. A straightforward time dependent model for total risk (the total number of crashes per total distance travelled) was often used. Statistical techniques were used to optimize these models, with or without additional explanatory variables, such as alcohol consumption. This thesis In this thesis the focus lies not on the total, but on the subdivision (stratification) of the crash data and the data of distance travelled. Different subgroups with different risks (like different travel modes, different age groups and combinations of both) are modelled separately. It is shown that these groups often have different risks and different trends in distance travelled. These different subgroups – the ‘bits’ and ‘pieces’ – and their different developments can give rise to a substantial change in the total risk – the ‘road safety’. The thesis introduces the subject by explaining the theory, the method and the data. The four succeeding chapters explore the ways in which these methods may be used to analyse past data and perform forecasts. They were previously published in scientific journals. In the final chapter, further possibilities of the development of road safety models are sketched." @default.
- W2107266379 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2107266379 creator A5056078957 @default.
- W2107266379 date "2013-06-21" @default.
- W2107266379 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2107266379 title "Road safety in bits and pieces; for a better understanding of the development of the number of road fatalities" @default.
- W2107266379 doi "https://doi.org/10.4233/uuid:435ca957-1b52-446c-a325-f12c433a99d9" @default.
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