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• W210939389 abstract "In an interview with Jose Vericat of the Journal of International Affairs, Kishore Mahbubani, dean and professor in the practice of public policy at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, situates Sino-Indian relations in historical context, explains the U.S.-China-India balancing act and assures us that the rise of two somewhat acrimonious giants is not all bad news. Journal of International Affairs: What will the global balance of power look like in five to ten years? Kishore Mahbubani: I think it is very clear that the power will shift to Asia. As I have explained in my last book, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East, the past two hundred years of western domination of world history have been a major historical aberration because from year one to year 1820 the two largest economies of the world were consistently China and India. It is only in the last 200 years that Europe and North America took off. But against the backdrop of the last 2,000 years, the last 200 years have been an aberration, and all aberrations come to a natural end. Journal: Why has that been an aberration? Mahbubani: If you have a 2,000 year pattern of history and a 200 year pattern of history, that 200 year pattern of history is an aberration. It is much more natural for China and India to be the two largest powers in the world given the size of their populations, their histories, their cultures. And so it is perfectly natural for China and India to assume the number one and number two slots in the world. Journal: Who will dominate Asia out of those two powers? Mahbubani: We hope neither one. The good news about Asia is that even though China is a very large country of 1.3 billion people, that is still only about one third of Asia. India has 1.1 to 1.2 billion. So neither power has the capacity to dominate Asia. The good news is also that both powers realize that it is in their interest to continue what I would call the current ASEAN-led cooperative order in Asia. Both of them are very supportive of the process of regional cooperation started by ASEAN. Journal: Would you call this shift a decline of the West or the rise of Asia? Mahbubani: The decline of the West is not taking place in absolute terms. I have to emphasize this. The American economy is not going to shrink absolutely. The European economies are not going to shrink absolutely. They are only going to shrink in relative terms and not in absolute terms. And so they are still going to continue to have very large economies. In fact, the United States will have the world's third largest economy by 2050. The European economies will still be very large but their share of the global GNP will go down dramatically. Journal: What does the rise of India and China mean for the rest of world? How would competition between the two nations help or hurt? Mahbubani: I think that China and India are really focused on their domestic and internal development. Neither of them, as of now, has any great power pretensions because they still have a lot of unfinished business in their own countries. India still has the largest pool of absolutely poor people. Depending on how you calculate it--there are various definitions of absolute poverty--about 200 to 300 million people. China too wants to focus on many internal challenges. So neither of them is trying to dominate the world in any kind of way. The good news is that both of them want to continue with the 1945 rules-based order that they joined, that the United States and Europe started. And that provides the greatest hope for the world, because if China and India actually accept the 1945 rules-based order, they will emerge as Germany and Japan did after the Second World War: peacefully, rather than as Germany and Japan emerged before the Second World War, which was not peacefully. Journal: You do not see competition between the two? …" @default.
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• W210939389 date "2011-03-22" @default.
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• W210939389 title "The Not-So-Surprising Rise of China and India: An Interview with Kishore Mahbubani" @default.
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