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- W2110730566 abstract "This study analyzes extensive data sets collected during the twentieth century and defines four modes of natu- ral variability in the flow of the Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25 % of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, this study identifies a region in the southern Indian Ocean, with a similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the region (50-80 E and 25-35 S) ex- plains 28 % of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and, when combined with the ENSO index, the explained variability of the flow of the Nile River increases to 44 %. In addition, during those years with anomalous SST conditions in both oceans, this study estimates that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian oceans can collectively ex- plain up to 84 % of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile. Building on these findings, this study uses the clas- sical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global model predictions of indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans." @default.
- W2110730566 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2110730566 date "2013-12-01" @default.
- W2110730566 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2110730566 title "Explaining and Forecasting Interannual Variability in the Flow of the Nile River" @default.
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