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- W2112023181 abstract "The effects of global climate change on hurricane activities have been the subject of constant debate in recent years. An analysis of the hurricane database (HURDAT) maintained by the National Hurricane Center reveals a change in the annual hurricane (or storm) genesis frequency in the Atlantic basin in recent years. Some studies have projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of landfalling hurricanes along the U.S. coastline in the near future. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of the influences of possible change in the hurricane genesis frequency on the hurricane landfall rates and wind speed distributions along the U.S. coastline. A state-of-the-art stochastic hurricane simulation model was utilized to simulate and project the future hurricane activities. Instead of generating the number of storms per year based on a constant mean frequency, computed using historical data, two new hurricane genesis models were derived to project the future storm genesis frequency. The stochastic hurricane simulation model incorporating the new genesis models was utilized to generate multiple realizations of hurricane seasons for the next 50 years (2012 to 2161). The results of this preliminary study show appreciable increases in both the landfall rates and wind speeds under two different hurricane climate change scenarios. In particular, the results indicate that more storms are likely to strike the Florida peninsula and coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina." @default.
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- W2112023181 date "2012-11-13" @default.
- W2112023181 modified "2023-09-22" @default.
- W2112023181 title "Influence of Climate Change on Future Hurricane Wind Hazards along the US Eastern Coast and the Gulf of Mexico" @default.
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- W2112023181 doi "https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784412626.051" @default.
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