Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2113944089> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 94 of
94
with 100 items per page.
- W2113944089 abstract "For robust detection performance, alerting algorithms for biosurveillance require input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behavior. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behavior by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. We describe three forecast methods and compare their predictive accuracy on each of 16 authentic syndromic data streams. The methods are (1) a nonadaptive loglinear regression model using a long historical baseline, (2) an adaptive regression model with a shorter, sliding baseline, and (3) the Holt-Winters method for generalized exponential smoothing. Criteria for comparing the forecasts were the rootmean-square error, the median absolute percent error (MedAPE) and the median absolute deviation. The median-based criteria showed best overall performance for the Holt-Winters method. The MedAPE measures over the 16 test series averaged 16.5, 11.6, and 9.7 for the nonadaptive regression, adaptive regression, and Holt-Winters methods, respectively. The nonadaptive regression forecasts were degraded by changes from the data behavior in the fixed baseline period used to compute model coefficients. The mean-based criterion was less conclusive because of the effects of poor forecasts on a small number of calendar holidays. The Holt-Winters method was also most effective at removing serial autocorrelation, with most 1-day-lag autocorrelation coefficients below 0.15. The forecast methods were compared without tuning them to the behavior of individual series. We achieved improved predictions with such tuning of the Holt-Winters method, but practical use of such improvements for routine surveillance will require reliable data classification methods." @default.
- W2113944089 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2113944089 creator A5061053285 @default.
- W2113944089 creator A5067433707 @default.
- W2113944089 date "2006-08-11" @default.
- W2113944089 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2113944089 title "Automated Time Series Forecasting for Biosurveillance" @default.
- W2113944089 cites W1502942445 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W1534346297 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W1569097278 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W1581749826 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W18228458 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W197787652 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W1988920820 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2019498815 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2048417628 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2057980620 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2101780942 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2103127518 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2111066425 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2121788922 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2141734529 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2154531209 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W2167036165 @default.
- W2113944089 cites W48524602 @default.
- W2113944089 hasPublicationYear "2006" @default.
- W2113944089 type Work @default.
- W2113944089 sameAs 2113944089 @default.
- W2113944089 citedByCount "6" @default.
- W2113944089 countsByYear W21139440892013 @default.
- W2113944089 crossrefType "posted-content" @default.
- W2113944089 hasAuthorship W2113944089A5061053285 @default.
- W2113944089 hasAuthorship W2113944089A5067433707 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C111368507 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C12725497 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C133710760 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C143724316 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C151406439 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C151730666 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C152877465 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C3770464 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C48921125 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C5297727 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C83546350 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConcept C86803240 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C105795698 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C111368507 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C12725497 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C127313418 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C133710760 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C143724316 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C149782125 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C151406439 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C151730666 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C152877465 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C33923547 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C3770464 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C41008148 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C48921125 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C5297727 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C83546350 @default.
- W2113944089 hasConceptScore W2113944089C86803240 @default.
- W2113944089 hasLocation W21139440891 @default.
- W2113944089 hasOpenAccess W2113944089 @default.
- W2113944089 hasPrimaryLocation W21139440891 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W1502942445 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W1959054920 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W1963716183 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2015747221 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2045912693 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2081469005 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2101780942 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2154531209 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2184285884 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2259205022 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2270638735 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2444063170 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2482742126 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2954458386 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W3125281175 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W3125390077 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W3173201944 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W573828397 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W754081503 @default.
- W2113944089 hasRelatedWork W2014662054 @default.
- W2113944089 isParatext "false" @default.
- W2113944089 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W2113944089 magId "2113944089" @default.
- W2113944089 workType "article" @default.