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• W2120404111 abstract "In this paper, we reaffirm Watkins and Menken’s (1985) conclusion that there is ‘little likelihood that famines will be a major determinant of population growth in the future, any more than ... in the past’. We find that age and sex-specific patterns of famine mortality change that have markedly different proportional change in group-specifi c mortality can nevertheless lead to similar trajectories for population size. Subsequent growth is related more to relative reductions in survival by age than to relative increases in mortality. We also comment on the use of Dyson’s conception index as a measure of the onset of famine. On the basis of careful analysis of three nineteenth-century famines in the Indian subcontinent, the 1943–1944 Bengal famine and the 1974–1975 Bangladesh famine, Dyson (1991a,b) challenges accepted thinking on the short-term effects of famine in South Asia and argues that many notions about the consequences of famine may be incorrect. His work illuminates our pictures of the evolution of the response of birth and death rates to famine conditions, of the interaction of famine conditions and epidemics, and of the age and sex composition of famine deaths. In this paper, we comment on his claim that conceptions provide a sensitive index of the development of famine and conclude that they do so only in retrospect. We next discuss the controversy over age and sex differentials in the impact of famine and attempt to recast the issue in terms of the impact first on survival rather than deaths, and then on resumption of population growth. We use a computer-simulation model to provide illustrations of the effects of different age and sex patterns of mortality change during famines on subsequent population growth. Conception rates Dyson (1991a:22) contends that the fertility of a population was ‘affected at a far earlier state in the build-up to famine than was its mortality’ and that the ‘level of conceptions.. .constitutes a reasonably sensitive index of the development of famine’. We are puzzled by these statements for several reasons. First, in these populations, conceptions were not observable until the birth occurred nine months later, by which time death rates were, in most cases, increasing. For the 1943–44 famine in Bengal, the increases in his conception index appear to precede price increases (Dyson, 1991b, Figure" @default.
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• W2120404111 title "Age-patterns of famine-related mortality increase: implications for long-term population growth." @default.
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