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- W2124011505 abstract "We thank Nada Gligorov for her careful reading of our paper. Although she raises some interesting questions that merit further investigation, several points of disagreement between us remain. Our paper, ‘‘Affective Forecasting and Its Implications for Medical Ethics,’’ delivers a cautionary message. It calls for awareness of our inclinations to exaggerate the predicted seriousness and duration of future psychological states. In that light we explain how all of the actors involved in medical decisions are susceptible to affective forecasting distortions and warn of the danger that such biased thinking introduces into deliberations. We go on to call for critical evaluation of the grounds for our fears and to suggest that we pause to assess evidence and determine whether or not the fears that are moving us are, in fact, well grounded. Gligorov is correct to note that the literature on affective forecasting describes ‘‘a first-person phenomenon.’’ Our paper discusses the first-person phenomenon of how patients’ biased judgment infects the decisions that they make for themselves. Gligorov rightly notes, however, that we go beyond the evidence when we ascribe the phenomenon to family members, clinicians, and policymakers who are making decisions based on how they expect others to feel. Again, the decisionmaking patterns that we identify seem to support our presumption that the phenomenon is more general. Yet, without evidence that judgments about how others will feel in the future is biased in the same way as judgments about how we ourselves will feel, this remains an untested hypothesis. If nothing more, our discussion could be taken as an argument that this might be a fruitful direction for further psychological investigation. Tied to her point about affective forecasting research’s focus on the first person is her claim about the phenomenon being ‘‘incorrigible.’’ By this, Gligorov means that regardless of the disconfirmation that we would note if we examined how well we recover from emotionally traumatic experiences, we fail to notice our bias and continue to make the same sort of distorted judgments about our future emotional states. Gligorov expresses hope that third persons (e.g., clinicians, family members, and policymakers) will be able to overcome the incorrigibility of the bias when making decisions about how to treat others, even though people cannot do it for themselves. We are more hopeful about the prospects for everyone. In a recent New York Times interview, Daniel T. Gilbert, a prominent researcher on affective forecasting, offered that he now uses the findings of his research to guide his choices. For example, Gilbert explained" @default.
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- W2124011505 date "2009-04-01" @default.
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- W2124011505 title "Further Thoughts about Affective Forecasting Biases in Medicine: A Response to Nada Gligorov" @default.
- W2124011505 doi "https://doi.org/10.1017/s0963180109090288" @default.
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