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- W2125292218 abstract "Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ``Do you want to pick door No. 2?'' Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? The answer is ``yes'' but the literature offers many reasons why this is the correct answer. The present paper argues that the most common reasoning found in introductory statistics texts, depending on making a number of ``obvious'' or ``natural'' assumptions and then computing a conditional probability, is a classical example of solution driven science. The best reason to switch is to be found in von Neumann's minimax theorem from game theory, rather than in Bayes' theorem." @default.
- W2125292218 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2125292218 date "2010-02-03" @default.
- W2125292218 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2125292218 title "The Monty Hall Problem is not a Probability Puzzle (it's a challenge in mathematical modelling)" @default.
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