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• W2125597302 abstract "The incidence function model (IFM) is a spatially realistic metapopulation model, in which extinction and colonisation probabilities are estimated from empirical data. We tested whether an IFM can be applied to quantify spatial habitat requirements for the protection and long-term survival of the tree frog Hyla arb?rea in Zealand Flanders, using a time series of three consecutive annual distribution patterns and dispersal data. The tree frog is an endangered species in the Netherlands and its distribution pattern is highly fragmented. An extended IFM was developed in which habitat quality parame ters were incorporated to estimate functions for colonisation and extinction. A new method to estimate colonisation and extinction functions was developed, using both the turnover events between years and the spatial distribution pattern of the first year of survey. A logistic regression analysis indicated that the extinction probability decreased with pond size and that colonisation probability was higher for large ponds with high connectivity. The observed dispersal distances in comparison with the distances be tween ponds showed that the habitat network was still connected by dispersing individ uals. The extended IFM quite accurately predicted the distribution pattern within a few years. However long-term predictions of metapopulation persistence were probably optimistic. A three-year data set is too short to incorporate the total range of fluctua tions of population numbers between years. In addition deterministic extinctions due to habitat destruction and the loss of suitable habitat caused by natural succession were not incorporated in the model. It is concluded that the model could be a useful tool for conservation assessment when comparing different nature restoration scenarios and to provide general guidelines for an optimal tree frog landscape." @default.
• W2125597302 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2125597302 date "2000-01-01" @default.
• W2125597302 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2125597302 title "Incidence function modelling and conservation of the tree frog Hyla arborea in the Netherlands" @default.
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