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• W2129328886 abstract "<h3>Background:</h3> In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007. <h3>Methods:</h3> A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation. <h3>Results:</h3> The results suggest that Australia’s smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020. <h3>Conclusions:</h3> Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020." @default.
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• W2129328886 date "2009-01-29" @default.
• W2129328886 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W2129328886 title "Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?" @default.
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• W2129328886 doi "https://doi.org/10.1136/tc.2008.027615" @default.
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