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• W212944650 abstract "In a democracy we have to accept that decision processes are participatory in the way that they involve many stakeholders in the decision, not only experts. This is important because most of the decisions cannot only be based on facts but also values have to be included. It is thus important to have transparent information around the consequences of different alternatives and the concept of risk is here one of the most difficult concepts to evaluate. This project has focused on a case study around the location of Loudden oil terminal in the central part of Stockholm. This case study was chosen because of its complexity regarding the decision-making process and stakeholder interests and because risk is an important parameter in the decision of the location of the oil harbour. The case study shows that land use planning is a delicate trade off between economic and social development and protection of environment and between the interests of different stakeholders. This planning process requires that information around risks of different types can be evaluated and presented in a transparent way for all the stakeholders involved. Risk is only one parameter among many in the decision process, but it is often an important one and one which is difficult to grasp. One of the experiences in the project is that many of the stakeholders including politicians and the public, taking part in the planning processes have a consequence based approach more than a risk-based approach. This means that they do not take the low probabilities for mayor accidents into account but merely focus on possible worst case scenarios and if those can be handled. The safety reports for the installations however have a much more risk-based approach relying on different methods for estimating probabilities for accident scenarios. This makes it very difficult to communicate and agree upon the results from these safety reports which are actually the basis for decisions around the acceptance of the installations. Parts of the existing legislation also includes demand for estimation of probabilities or frequencies for accidents, but no recommendations how to calculate it. In connection to this there are also proposals to use acceptance criteria e.g. societal risk and individual risk in order to facilitate evaluation both for the companies and for the authorities. This project shows that this development is very doubtful because of the inherent large uncertainties in the estimation and also because of the problem to communicate the results in participatory decision processes. As a result of this project we therefore argue that there should be a more consequence based approach for accidents and worst case scenarios in the safety reports where ‘real’ worst case scenarios are described. These can then be communicated to the stakeholders and also to the rescue service in order to decide if these worst case scenarios can be handled in a proper way and also how the risk can be reduced by robust barriers and emergency actions. The report should also include an extended summary which in a transparent way can communicate the results to all involved stakeholders. There should also be an overview of major accidents which have occurred internationally at similar installations. From this project the recommendation for further research is that more detailed examples of guidelines for how to develop more consequence based approach for accidents and worst case scenarios should be developed both for industrial sites and transport of dangerous substances. These developed examples should then be discussed among a wide stakeholder group. The result from the training package shows that this type of training course where different stakeholders have to argue from different standpoints is very valuable in order to widen the horizons and understanding different views on the concept of risk. There is not one objective way to evaluate risk, but many depending on values and preferences." @default.
• W212944650 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W212944650 date "2008-01-01" @default.
• W212944650 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W212944650 title "Methods for Risk Assessment within the Framework of Sustainable Development" @default.
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