Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2129732018> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 61 of
61
with 100 items per page.
- W2129732018 abstract "Thesis (M.P.P.)--Georgetown University, 2009.; Includes bibliographical references. Over the past two decades political scientists have produced models that take a scientific approach toward predicting and evaluating election effects and outcomes. This paper seeks to improve upon one of the most well-known U.S. presidential election forecasting models, Alan Abramowitz's time-for-change model, by including a new measure of campaign performance. This paper tests the hypothesis of whether including a measure of small donor contributions, as a proxy for grassroots involvement as a result of campaign activity, is important to forecasting vote share outcome. This study finds that including the small donor contributions ratio in the time-for-change model does not change the signs of the other covariates. More importantly, the small donor contributions ratio is highly statistically significant, suggesting that the small donor contributions ratio may be a good predictor for presidential election vote share prediction models. Including the small donor contributions ratio improved the model's goodness-of-fit and standard error of the estimate, but not necessarily the out-of-sample error. The results suggest that if the two-major-party candidates in a race have similar proportions of grassroots involvement, the incumbent-party candidate enjoys an estimated 2.2% advantage in the two-party vote share. If this ratio favors the incumbent 2:1, then the advantage is 4.4%; if the ratio instead favors the challenger 2:1, then the incumbent's advantage is reduced to 1.1%." @default.
- W2129732018 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2129732018 creator A5020016634 @default.
- W2129732018 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W2129732018 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2129732018 title "Time to change the time-for-change model? : modifying a U.S. presidential vote share prediction model with a measure of grassroots involvement" @default.
- W2129732018 hasPublicationYear "2009" @default.
- W2129732018 type Work @default.
- W2129732018 sameAs 2129732018 @default.
- W2129732018 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W2129732018 crossrefType "dissertation" @default.
- W2129732018 hasAuthorship W2129732018A5020016634 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C197487636 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C2776129789 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C2780148112 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C2781188222 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConcept C94625758 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C105795698 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C149782125 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C162324750 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C17744445 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C197487636 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C199539241 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C2776129789 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C2780148112 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C2781188222 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C33923547 @default.
- W2129732018 hasConceptScore W2129732018C94625758 @default.
- W2129732018 hasLocation W21297320181 @default.
- W2129732018 hasOpenAccess W2129732018 @default.
- W2129732018 hasPrimaryLocation W21297320181 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W139857299 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W1589203496 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W1969774453 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W1977717228 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W1994884266 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2034694592 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2063349788 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2066722787 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2076908398 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2092223476 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2302147247 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2329633579 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W2804147862 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3025207173 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3033628383 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3122376743 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3124256731 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3124346199 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W3203948446 @default.
- W2129732018 hasRelatedWork W904392552 @default.
- W2129732018 isParatext "false" @default.
- W2129732018 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W2129732018 magId "2129732018" @default.
- W2129732018 workType "dissertation" @default.