FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2132111366> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2132111366 endingPage "2028" @default.
• W2132111366 startingPage "1993" @default.
• W2132111366 abstract "A methodology is described for probabilistic predictions of future climate. This is based on a set of ensemble simulations of equilibrium and time-dependent changes, carried out by perturbing poorly constrained parameters controlling key physical and biogeochemical processes in the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model. These (ongoing) experiments allow quantification of the effects of earth system modelling uncertainties and internal climate variability on feedbacks likely to exert a significant influence on twenty-first century climate at large regional scales. A further ensemble of regional climate simulations at 25km resolution is being produced for Europe, allowing the specification of probabilistic predictions at spatial scales required for studies of climate impacts. The ensemble simulations are processed using a set of statistical procedures, the centrepiece of which is a Bayesian statistical framework designed for use with complex but imperfect models. This supports the generation of probabilities constrained by a wide range of observational metrics, and also by expert-specified prior distributions defining the model parameter space. The Bayesian framework also accounts for additional uncertainty introduced by structural modelling errors, which are estimated using our ensembles to predict the results of alternative climate models containing different structural assumptions. This facilitates the generation of probabilistic predictions combining information from perturbed physics and multi-model ensemble simulations. The methodology makes extensive use of emulation and scaling techniques trained on climate model results. These are used to sample the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide at any required point in the parameter space of surface and atmospheric processes, to sample time-dependent changes by combining this information with ensembles sampling uncertainties in the transient response of a wider set of earth system processes, and to sample changes at local scales. The methodology is necessarily dependent on a number of expert choices, which are highlighted throughout the paper." @default.
• W2132111366 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5007536096 @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5009448888 @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5010208749 @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5011896430 @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5018749393 @default.
• W2132111366 creator A5024576697 @default.
• W2132111366 date "2007-06-14" @default.
• W2132111366 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W2132111366 title "A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles" @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1514625308 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1527805269 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1590470842 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1605483703 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1618567178 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1620282461 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1627726926 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1661653514 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1898166770 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1964557443 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1965220775 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1965358009 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1966396962 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1967884290 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1970812648 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1971794483 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1972685339 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1972946703 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1973333099 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1974426043 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1977244495 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1977838436 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1980121541 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1981579808 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1985479415 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1986344857 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1987707266 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1988472520 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1989771489 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1990489928 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1990958103 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1994102001 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1997006702 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W1998740358 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2004649661 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2005192596 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2008945247 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2011109821 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2013290333 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2015679086 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2016628424 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2017628975 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2018832642 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2019507572 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2019665254 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2022543498 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2027171718 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2028146648 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2029032240 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2034655256 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2035221792 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2036638946 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2039737922 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2041946298 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2043171415 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2045078541 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2045386802 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2046759075 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2052115269 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2059711499 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2059750644 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2060776950 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2064952734 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2067366265 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2068970303 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2069872682 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2073806012 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2074043800 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2076969359 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2077225078 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2077287559 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2077545453 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2077623746 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2078048697 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2087556976 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2090249381 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2090347106 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2092530280 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2094349676 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2097331168 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2100931101 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2104659861 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2105516599 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2108184065 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2122974524 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2128730269 @default.
• W2132111366 cites W2131859951 @default.

• next