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- W2136869087 abstract "Three types of seasonal prediction systems have been operated at National Typhoon Centre(NTC)/KMA for typhoon genesis frequency and track pattern probability since 2012. Statistical, Dynamical, and Statistical-Dynamical Hybrid approaches are employed. The Summer(Jun-Jul-Aug) and Fall(Sep-Oct-Nov) seasonal prediction is made one month prior to target season. The seasonal prediction outputs consist of statistics for total number of typhoon genesis in western North Pacific(WNP) and possible threat to Korean peninsula among them, and the probability of each categorized track pattern. The statistical system(NTC_KNU 1 ) is based on multiple linear regression model obtained by examining the lagged correlation between typhoon genesis and synoptic predictors. The dynamical system(NTC_COAPS) is adapting primitive equation global spectral model ensembles with resolution of T126L27(a Gaussian grid spacing of 0.94deg) which is developed at FSU/COAPS 2 specialized for tropical cyclone prediction. The hybrid system(NTC_SNU 3 ) is statistical-dynamical forecast model which predicts the seven representative tropical cyclone track patterns obtained by the fuzzy clustering algorithm and a technique to assemble the predicted frequency of each track pattern into one map of the seasonal tropical cyclone track density. Using the NCEP CFS forecast data, the dynamical forecasted environments which have relationship with clustered track pattern, are employed as predictors for each pattern. The official typhoon seasonal prediction information is decided by consensus from those three systems and disseminate to public as part of Climate Prediction Division’s official seasonal forecast in May and August. The performance of three systems in year 2012 is discussed." @default.
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- W2136869087 date "2013-04-01" @default.
- W2136869087 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2136869087 title "Operational Typhoon Seasonal Prediction Systems at NTC/KMA" @default.
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