FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2144668858> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2144668858 endingPage "119" @default.
• W2144668858 startingPage "73" @default.
• W2144668858 abstract "The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each ensemble comprises 32 10-day forecasts starting from initial conditions in which dynamically defined perturbations have been added to the operational analysis. The perturbations are constructed from singular vectors of a time-evolution operator linearized around the short-range-forecast trajectory. These singular vectors approximately determine the most unstable phase-space directions in the early part of the forecast period, and are estimated using a forward and adjoint linear version of the ECMWF numerical weather-prediction model. An appropriate norm is chosen, and relationships between the structures of these singular vectors at initial time and patterns showing the sensitivity of short-range forecast error to changes in the analysis are discussed. A methodology to perform a phase-space rotation of the singular vectors is described, which generates hemispheric-wide perturbations and renormalizes them according to analysis-error estimates from the data-assimilation system. The validation of the ensembles is given firstly in terms of scatter diagrams and contingency tables of ensemble spread and control-forecast skill. The contingency tables are compared with those from a perfect-model ensemble system; no significant differences are found in some cases. Brier scores for the probability of European flow clusters are presented, which indicate predictive skill up to forecast-day 8 with respect to climatological probabilities. The dependence of these scores on flow-dependent model errors is also discussed. Finally, ensemble-member skill-score distributions are presented, which confirm the overall satisfactory performance of the EPS, particularly in summer and autumn 1993. In winter, cases of poor performance over Europe were associated with the occurrence of a split westerly flow with a blocking high and/or a cut-off low in the verifying analysis. Two cases are studied in detail, one having large ensemble dispersion, the other corresponding to a more predictable situation. The case studies are used to illustrate the range of ensemble products routinely disseminated to ECMWF Member States. These products include clusters of flow types, and probability fields of weather elements." @default.
• W2144668858 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2144668858 creator A5022784704 @default.
• W2144668858 creator A5038086627 @default.
• W2144668858 creator A5038562350 @default.
• W2144668858 creator A5048539443 @default.
• W2144668858 date "1996-01-01" @default.
• W2144668858 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2144668858 title "The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation" @default.
• W2144668858 cites W1615338691 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W1964272231 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W1991436123 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2001673819 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2006642656 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2007234075 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2010104690 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2017914264 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2026861276 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2049741199 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2050259600 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2057667423 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2063485665 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2075017839 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2076227027 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2085517076 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2086907218 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2107691019 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2111017104 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2172510718 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2174240882 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2176625969 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2178778907 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2179079471 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2180126428 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W3043145710 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4232726482 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4236664540 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4237142403 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4237311776 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4237344372 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4248421000 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W4366305752 @default.
• W2144668858 cites W2014037082 @default.
• W2144668858 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712252905" @default.
• W2144668858 hasPublicationYear "1996" @default.
• W2144668858 type Work @default.
• W2144668858 sameAs 2144668858 @default.
• W2144668858 citedByCount "1378" @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582012 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582013 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582014 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582015 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582016 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582017 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582018 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582019 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582020 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582021 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582022 @default.
• W2144668858 countsByYear W21446688582023 @default.
• W2144668858 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2144668858 hasAuthorship W2144668858A5022784704 @default.
• W2144668858 hasAuthorship W2144668858A5038086627 @default.
• W2144668858 hasAuthorship W2144668858A5038562350 @default.
• W2144668858 hasAuthorship W2144668858A5048539443 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C119898033 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C147947694 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C151342819 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C153294291 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C159985019 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C170061395 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C192562407 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C204323151 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C24552861 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C28826006 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C35405484 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConcept C97355855 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C105795698 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C119898033 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C121332964 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C147947694 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C151342819 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C153294291 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C159985019 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C170061395 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C192562407 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C204323151 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C24552861 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C28826006 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C33923547 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C35405484 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C41008148 @default.
• W2144668858 hasConceptScore W2144668858C97355855 @default.
• W2144668858 hasIssue "529" @default.

• next