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• W2154708777 abstract "Is the practice of covert foreign regime change by one democracy against another consistent with theories of democratic peace (DP)? Critics (and some proponents) of DP argue that instances of such covert action contradict democratic peace theory, whereas defenders have come up with a variety of reasons for why covert intervention is consistent with DP. Existing analyses, however, have failed to acknowledge that there are multiple democratic peace theories, and that interdemocratic covert action might have different implications for different theories. In this paper, we first distill hypotheses regarding covert foreign regime change from different norms and institutions theories of DP. Relying primarily on declassified government documents, we then investigate these hypotheses in the context of two cases of U.S. covert intervention in the Cold War: Guatemala (1954), and Chile (1970-73). The evidence suggests that covert action is highly inconsistent with norms and checks-and-balances theories of DP. American policymakers perceived these two countries to be democratic, but intervened anyway; intervention was covert because of international reputational reasons rather than domestic constraints; and these operations conspicuously did not spread democracy. Selectorate theory—based in leaders’ accountability to a large constituency and the incentives this creates to provide successful public policy—performs better, but American presidents persisted in covert interventions in these cases even though the likelihood of failure was high and the probability of American involvement being revealed contingent upon failure was also high. Why democratic leaders would gamble on risky actions when policy failure was sure to be revealed is an important question for the theory. Given that leaders were acting to prevent the spread of communism and Soviet influence in Guatemala and Chile, we explore the implications of our analysis for the argument that democracies do not wage preventive wars." @default.
• W2154708777 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2154708777 date "2008-01-01" @default.
• W2154708777 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2154708777 title "COVERT ACTION, DEMOCRATIC PEACE, AND THE COLD WAR" @default.
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