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- W2155453600 abstract "This paper examines whether output contractions associated with cyclical output fluctuations and economic crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. The first part identifies four potential sources of asymmetry: expectations and confidence factors; credit rationing at the firm level (induced by either adverse selection problems or negative shocks to net worth); borrowing constraints at the household level; and the “labor hoarding” hypothesis. Some testable implications of these alternative explanations are also identified. The second part proposes a vector autoregression technique (involving the detrended components of real output, the unemployment rate, real wages, and the poverty rate) to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the magnitude of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the extent to which output shocks affect poverty. The technique is then applied to Brazil, using annual data for the period 1981-99. The results indicate that poverty responds asymmetrically to output shocks, showing less sensitivity when the economy is initially in a downturn." @default.
- W2155453600 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2155453600 date "2001-11-05" @default.
- W2155453600 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2155453600 title "Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor: Testing for Asymmetric Effects" @default.
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- W2155453600 doi "https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-2700" @default.
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