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• W2155614634 abstract "In this paper, we develop an empirical framework for estimating the causal effect of soft budget constraints on economic outcomes. The point of departure is that the problem of the soft budget constraint is a problem of credibility, that is, inabili ty of a supporting organization to commit itself not to extend more resources (i.e., bailouts) ex post to a budget-constrained organization than it was prepared to provide ex ante . This means that current economic behavior of a budget-constrained organization will depend upon its expectations of being bailed out in the future. Thus, to estimate the causal effect of s oft budget constraints (i.e., bailout expectations) on economic outcomes one has to measure these expe ctations and link those to the current behavior of the budget-constrained organization. We a rgue that one can use information about realized bailouts to construct credible measures of bailout expectations and use an instrumental variable strategy to solve problems of mea surement error and endogeneity associated with the proxy variable for bailout expectat ions. The empirical framework is applied to Swedish local governments, who provide an attra ctive testing ground of the soft budget constraint since the central government has extende d a total of 1,697 bailouts over the period 1974 to 1992. We find strong evidence that bailout expec tations have a causal effect on economic behavior. The estimated effect is a lso quite sizeable: on average, a local government increases its debt with 30 percent if it is certain of being bailed out as compared to when it is certain of not being bailed out." @default.
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• W2155614634 date "2005-11-10" @default.
• W2155614634 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2155614634 title "An Empirical Approach for Estimating the Causal Effect of Soft Budget Constraints on Economic Outcomes" @default.
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