Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2155653089> ?p ?o ?g. }
- W2155653089 endingPage "357" @default.
- W2155653089 startingPage "333" @default.
- W2155653089 abstract "Anticipating infectious disease emergence and documenting progress in disease elimination are important applications for the theory of critical transitions. A key problem is the development of theory relating the dynamical processes of transmission to observable phenomena. In this paper, we consider compartmental susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) and susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) models that are slowly forced through a critical transition. We derive expressions for the behavior of several candidate indicators, including the autocorrelation coefficient, variance, coefficient of variation, and power spectra of SIS and SIR epidemics during the approach to emergence or elimination. We validated these expressions using individual-based simulations. We further showed that moving-window estimates of these quantities may be used for anticipating critical transitions in infectious disease systems. Although leading indicators of elimination were highly predictive, we found the approach to emergence to be much more difficult to detect. It is hoped that these results, which show the anticipation of critical transitions in infectious disease systems to be theoretically possible, may be used to guide the construction of online algorithms for processing surveillance data." @default.
- W2155653089 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2155653089 creator A5071740877 @default.
- W2155653089 creator A5074579933 @default.
- W2155653089 date "2013-05-31" @default.
- W2155653089 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
- W2155653089 title "Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination" @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1537506907 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1966512215 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1967940959 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1969118743 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1991038167 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1991359665 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W1994224908 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2008187346 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2009400068 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2016767093 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2022071825 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2045254026 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2071118860 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2074437707 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2078582567 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2081569298 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2099412033 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2100106837 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2110331506 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2116199452 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2122219241 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2123730929 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2127585938 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2130435784 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2130821986 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2133988428 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2138721678 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2144207524 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2146952198 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2150437808 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2153268540 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2155418451 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2158678754 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2159064890 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2159120767 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2159806788 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2165532966 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2168773352 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2170330538 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2171351474 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W2171567087 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4205879831 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4232160611 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4234011924 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4239069656 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4299870202 @default.
- W2155653089 cites W4302331569 @default.
- W2155653089 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-013-0185-5" @default.
- W2155653089 hasPubMedCentralId "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7090900" @default.
- W2155653089 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32218877" @default.
- W2155653089 hasPublicationYear "2013" @default.
- W2155653089 type Work @default.
- W2155653089 sameAs 2155653089 @default.
- W2155653089 citedByCount "87" @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892013 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892014 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892015 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892016 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892017 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892018 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892019 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892020 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892021 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892022 @default.
- W2155653089 countsByYear W21556530892023 @default.
- W2155653089 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W2155653089 hasAuthorship W2155653089A5071740877 @default.
- W2155653089 hasAuthorship W2155653089A5074579933 @default.
- W2155653089 hasBestOaLocation W21556530891 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C121864883 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C142724271 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C176777502 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C2779134260 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C29825287 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C32848918 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C524204448 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C5297727 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C62520636 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C71924100 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConcept C76155785 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConceptScore W2155653089C105795698 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConceptScore W2155653089C121332964 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConceptScore W2155653089C121864883 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConceptScore W2155653089C142724271 @default.
- W2155653089 hasConceptScore W2155653089C149782125 @default.