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• W2158486539 abstract "Research Article| September 01, 2007 On the importance of proper noise modelling for long-term precipitable water vapour trend estimations Adriaan Z.A. Combrink; Adriaan Z.A. Combrink Space Geodesy Programme, Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 443, Krugersdorp 1740, South Africa, School of Architecture, Planning and Geomatics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa, e-mail: attie@hartrao.ac.za Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Machiel S. Bos; Machiel S. Bos Observatório Astronómico, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, do Campo Alegre, 4169-007, Portugal, e-mail: msbos@fc.up.pt Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Rui M.S. Fernandes; Rui M.S. Fernandes UBI, CGUL, IDL, R. Marquês d’Ávila e Bolama, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal DEOS, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, 2629HS Delft, The Netherlands, e-mail: rmanuel@di.ubi.pt Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar W. Ludwig Combrinck; W. Ludwig Combrinck Space Geodesy Programme, Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 443, Krugersdorp 1740, South Africa, e-mail: ludwig@hartrao.ac.za Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Charles L. Merry Charles L. Merry School of Architecture, Planning and Geomatics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa, e-mail: cmerry1@gmail.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar South African Journal of Geology (2007) 110 (2-3): 211–218. https://doi.org/10.2113/gssajg.110.2-3.211 Article history first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Adriaan Z.A. Combrink, Machiel S. Bos, Rui M.S. Fernandes, W. Ludwig Combrinck, Charles L. Merry; On the importance of proper noise modelling for long-term precipitable water vapour trend estimations. South African Journal of Geology 2007;; 110 (2-3): 211–218. doi: https://doi.org/10.2113/gssajg.110.2-3.211 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySouth African Journal of Geology Search Advanced Search Abstract Time-series of precipitable water vapour (PWV), derived from continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations, are analysed for the two South African stations HRAO and SUTH. Since water vapour is a major greenhouse gas, observed changes in atmospheric PWV could be indicative of weather and climate change. Our main contribution is a realistic noise model of the PWV observations which enables one to draw correct conclusions about the significance of the derived PWV increase or decrease for given time spans longer than five years. It is demonstrated that the PWV residuals that are obtained after fitting a trend and yearly signal to the data are, due to the simple model’s exclusion of short-term scatter, much larger than the PWV uncertainties provided by the GPS analysis software. Although a better solution for the associated uncertainties is obtained by using the variance of these PWV residuals for the uncertainty rescaling, it is shown that the ARMA(1,1) noise model better represents the associated statistical uncertainties than the simple white noise model. The ARMA(1,1)-derived PWV trend uncertainties are approximately 2 times greater than those for a rescaled white noise model. Finally, it is argued that the variability of the annual signal prevents any trend estimation using time series shorter than about five years. A quantitative measure is presented to determine the minimum period of continuous GPS observational data required to measure PWV trends to a specified accuracy. As result of our study, we conclude that no statistically significant PWV trends are observed at the two GPS stations between 1998 and 2006. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access." @default.
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• W2158486539 title "On the importance of proper noise modelling for long-term precipitable water vapour trend estimations" @default.
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