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- W2159490613 abstract "Inventories are known to play a large role in business cycles, but the causal relationship is not entirely understood—do inventory cycles generate business cycles, or vice versa? In operations management theory, modeling choice pre-determines the role of inventories. Production smoothing models dictate that inventories follow production decisions; OrderUp-To models dictate that inventories drive production decisions. Empirical observations, however, show that inventories are both a cause and an effect of production decisions. We hypothesize that –in real life– target inventory levels are dynamic and are adjusted in response to not only changes in demand forecast but also fluctuating cost considerations. We develop a two-echelon structural model of inventory decisions using financial data for 6040 unique supplier-customer dyads for the years 1984–2013 to investigate downstream inventory adjustments and their influence on upstream firms. The model shows that suppliers react to arbitrary downstream inventory adjustments over and above the demand changes, revealing a new explanation for transient shocks getting amplified upstream. Our results show that inventory cost ratios are dynamic, and support the hypothesis that they follow economic and financial sentiment such as liquidity considerations and GDP growth rates." @default.
- W2159490613 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2159490613 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2159490613 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2159490613 title "Inventories and the Credit Crisis: A Chicken and Egg Situation" @default.
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