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- W2160374806 abstract "This paper discusses the short-run and long-run dynamics of price for storable natural resource commodities. It deals with the interrelationships between price, inventory, and price volatility; the effects of inventory and producers’ operating flexibility on the dynamics of price in the short-run; and the evolution of the long-run equilibrium price. The paper describes a model that explains the dynamics of commodity prices based on demand for inventory and on threshold prices that would induce producers to expand or contract operations. The paper concludes that in the short-run, producers’ operating flexibility reduces price volatility when the spot price is higher than the threshold price which would cause expansion in the scale of operations. It further concludes that operating flexibility will raise price volatility when the spot price is lower than the threshold price which would result in a contraction of operations. It concludes that in the short run, commodity prices tend to revert to a short-run equilibrium price, whereas in the long run, they tend to revert to a long-run trend. The paper demonstrates the failure of currently used parametric models in describing the stochastic process of commodity prices, and suggests using non-parametric methods. It also recommends including the time trend in such a model. As an illustration the paper presents an analysis of the price processes for lumber and cotton." @default.
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- W2160374806 date "2004-01-01" @default.
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- W2160374806 title "Short-Run and Long-Run Dynamics of Resource Commodity Prices" @default.
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