FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2160708044> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2160708044 endingPage "724" @default.
• W2160708044 startingPage "715" @default.
• W2160708044 abstract "Motivated by a recent resurgence in earthquake predictability research, we present a method for testing alarm-based earthquake predictions. The testing method is based on the Molchan diagram—a plot of miss rate and fraction of space-time occupied by alarm—and is applicable to a wide class of predictions, including probabilistic earthquake forecasts varying in space, time, and magnitude. A single alarm can be simply tested using the cumulative binomial distribution. Here we consider the more interesting case of a function from which a continuum of well-ordered alarms can be derived. For such an ‘alarm function’ we construct a cumulative performance measure, the area skill score, based on the normalized area above a trajectory on the Molchan diagram. A score of unity indicates perfect skill, a score of zero indicates perfect non-skill, and the expected score for a random alarm function is 1/2. The area skill score quantifies the performance of an arbitrary alarm function relative to a reference model. To illustrate the testing method, we consider the 10-yr experiment by J. Rundle and others to predict M ≥ 5 earthquakes in California. We test forecasts from three models: relative intensity (RI), a simple spatial clustering model constructed using only smoothed historical seismicity; pattern informatics (PI), a model that aims to capture seismicity dynamics by pattern recognition; and the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHM), a model that comprises smoothed historical seismicity, zones of ‘background’ seismicity, and explicit fault information. Results show that neither PI nor NSHM provide significant performance gain relative to the RI reference model. We suggest that our testing method can be used to evaluate future experiments in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and to iteratively improve reference models for earthquake prediction hypothesis testing." @default.
• W2160708044 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2160708044 creator A5028735277 @default.
• W2160708044 creator A5030600113 @default.
• W2160708044 date "2008-02-01" @default.
• W2160708044 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
• W2160708044 title "Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions" @default.
• W2160708044 cites W135352189 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1482168343 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1554720530 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1968911068 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1980316168 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1982590043 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1984713496 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W1993960313 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2004598945 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2013062051 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2018314772 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2025297319 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2033447402 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2041521362 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2042081284 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2043411293 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2049883494 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2053109492 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2060701706 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2074094885 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2076018521 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2099929975 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2108345411 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2108731107 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2109535573 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2118700536 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2145571232 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2152694151 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2158438651 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W2329118521 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W4252383520 @default.
• W2160708044 cites W4321429221 @default.
• W2160708044 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.2007.03676.x" @default.
• W2160708044 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
• W2160708044 type Work @default.
• W2160708044 sameAs 2160708044 @default.
• W2160708044 citedByCount "128" @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442012 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442013 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442014 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442015 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442016 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442017 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442018 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442019 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442020 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442021 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442022 @default.
• W2160708044 countsByYear W21607080442023 @default.
• W2160708044 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2160708044 hasAuthorship W2160708044A5028735277 @default.
• W2160708044 hasAuthorship W2160708044A5030600113 @default.
• W2160708044 hasBestOaLocation W21607080441 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C156801008 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C165205528 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C197640229 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C2776836416 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConcept C83176761 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C105795698 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C127313418 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C154945302 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C156801008 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C165205528 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C197640229 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C2776836416 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C33923547 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C41008148 @default.
• W2160708044 hasConceptScore W2160708044C83176761 @default.
• W2160708044 hasIssue "2" @default.
• W2160708044 hasLocation W21607080441 @default.
• W2160708044 hasOpenAccess W2160708044 @default.
• W2160708044 hasPrimaryLocation W21607080441 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W1821707512 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W1970501295 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W2382264130 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W239926260 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W2560240398 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W3115681188 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W3208176069 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W4243050996 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W4321502140 @default.
• W2160708044 hasRelatedWork W605406854 @default.
• W2160708044 hasVolume "172" @default.
• W2160708044 isParatext "false" @default.
• W2160708044 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W2160708044 magId "2160708044" @default.

• next