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• W2165519646 abstract "We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The model, which consists of five unobserved components including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying vector autoregression model for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments indicate improvements upon univariate benchmarks. Since 2008, the implied Phillips curve has become steeper and the the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment has increased." @default.
• W2165519646 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2165519646 date "2012-10-01" @default.
• W2165519646 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W2165519646 title "A State-Dependent Model for Inflation Forecasting" @default.
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• W2165519646 doi "https://doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2012.1062r" @default.
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