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- W2165637152 abstract "Drawing on samples of professional observers of world politics, this article explores the interrelations among cognitive style, theoretical outlook, and reactions to close-call counterfactuals. Study 1 demonstrated that experts (especially high scorers on a composite measure of need for closure and simplicity) rejected close-call counterfactuals that redirected history when these counterfactuals undermined a preferred framework for understanding the past (the I-was-not-almost-wrong defense). Study 2 demonstrated that experts (especially high scorers on need for closure and simplicity) embraced close-call counterfactuals that redirected history when these counterfactuals protected conditional forecasts from refutation (the predicted outcome nearly occurred—so I was almost right). The article concludes by considering the radically different normative value spins that can be placed on" @default.
- W2165637152 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2165637152 date "1998-09-01" @default.
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- W2165637152 title "Close-call counterfactuals and belief-system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right." @default.
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- W2165637152 doi "https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.639" @default.
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