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- W2168931210 abstract "This paper investigates the effect of divided governments on asset prices. For identification, we use changes in the implied probability of a divided government while votes are being counted. Using high frequency data from the betting market and U.S. overnight futures market, we estimate a 1.4% decrease in the S&P 500 futures in the election event of a divided government. Results are similar for the 2010 U.K. election. Further analysis shows that divided government affects expected stock returns through the mechanism of policy uncertainty." @default.
- W2168931210 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2168931210 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W2168931210 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2168931210 title "Divided Governments and Asset Prices" @default.
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- W2168931210 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2263853" @default.
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