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• W21697228 abstract "Overview The past 50 years have seen enormous advances in electronics and the systems that depend upon or exploit them. The Department of Defense (DOD) has been an important driver in, and a profound beneficiary of, these advances, which have come so regularly that many observers expect them to continue indefinitely. However, as Jean de la Fontaine said, all matters one must consider the end. A substantial literature debates the ultimate limits to progress in solid-state electronics as they apply to the current paradigm for silicon integrated circuit (IC) technology. The outcome of this debate will have a profound societal impact because of the key role that silicon ICs play in computing, information, and sensor technologies. The consequences for DOD are profound. For example, DOD planning assumptions regarding total situational awareness have been keyed to Moore's Law, which predicts the doubling of transistor density about every 18 months. While this prediction proved to be accurate for more than thirty years, we are entering a period when industry will have increasing difficulty in sustaining this pace. Under the current device and manufacturing paradigm, progress in areas such as total situational awareness will slow or stagnate. If DOD planning assumptions are to be met, the DOD science and technology program would be well advised to search aggressively for alternate paradigms beyond those on which Moore's Law is based to ensure new technology capabilities. The purpose of this paper is to examine the current prognosis for silicon IC technology from a DOD perspective. The Current Situation The integrated circuit electronics revolution can be said to have begun on February 23, 1940, when Russell Ohl of Bell Laboratories observed anomalous behavior of the electronic properties of a cracked silicon crystal. His investigation led to the discovery of what is now known as the pn junction. Ohl's interest was in developing a better crystal oscillator. He has commented that Bell Laboratories managers were not especially interested in his work and preferred that he focus on issues related to vacuum electronics, where the real opportunities were perceived to lie. Fortunately, Walter Brattain was one of the first to review Ohl's discovery. Consequently, Bell Laboratories undertook a program to produce a solid-state switch to replace vacuum tube amplifiers and unreliable mechanical relays necessary for telephony. This program led to the discovery of the transistor in December 1947 by Brattain, John Bardeen, and William Shockley. In 1958, Jack Kilby invented and demonstrated an elemental integrated circuit composed of resistors and an active transistor device. Robert Noyce independently invented another form of the integrated circuit based upon silicon planar technology. At that point, the stage was set for the scientific and technical revolution in solid-state electronics that produced the tremendous capabilities in electronics, computers, communications, and information technology that we are experiencing today. In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of active transistor devices on a silicon integrated circuit would double about every 12 months. (1) He based this prediction upon a log-linear plot of device complexity over time using just three empirical data points from his employer, Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation. In 1975, Moore revisited this topic at the Institute of Elecrical and Electronics Engineers International Electron Devices Meeting. At that time, (presumably with knowledge of the technical attributes of silicon metal-oxide semiconductor [MOS] device scaling (2) and his own observations of improvements in silicon planar manufacturing technologies, including economy of scale and batch processing of silicon wafer), Moore revised his prediction, stating that transistor density would double about every 18 months. This prediction became known as Moore's Law. …" @default.
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• W21697228 title "Moore's Law: A Department of Defense Perspective" @default.
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