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- W2171476201 abstract "We propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors’ simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009." @default.
- W2171476201 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2171476201 date "2011-02-01" @default.
- W2171476201 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2171476201 title "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict" @default.
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- W2171476201 doi "https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210388125" @default.
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