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• W2176369079 abstract "Recent work has suggested that sections of the West Antarctic ice sheet are already rapidly retreating, raising concerns about increased sea-level rise; now, an ice-sheet model is used to simulate the mass loss from the entire Antarctic ice sheet to 2200, suggesting that it could contribute up to 30 cm of sea-level rise by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200, but is unlikely to contribute more. Recent work has suggested that rapid retreat is already underway for sections of the West Antarctic ice sheet, raising the possibility of increasing contributions to sea-level rise. These authors use an ice sheet model within a Bayesian statistical framework — in which critical processes are guided by expert synthesis — to simulate the mass loss from the entire Antarctic ice sheet to 2200. According to their simulations, the Antarctic ice sheet could contribute up to 30 cm of sea-level rise by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200. These findings suggest that the much higher upper-end contributions seen in other work are unlikely. Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI)1, a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence2,3,4 that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions5,6,7,8, the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging9: numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive2,3,10 to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections11 rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments9 (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers." @default.
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• W2176369079 date "2015-11-18" @default.
• W2176369079 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2176369079 title "Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations" @default.
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• W2176369079 doi "https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16147" @default.
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