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• W2181569302 abstract "In southeastern Arizona, a decline in climatological fire starts occurs in early July. This pattern is not as characteristically precipitous elsewhere in the southwestern United States (U.S.). The decline coincides with the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon, a seasonal climate feature impacting a large area of the southwestern U.S. Changes in atmospheric conditions resulting in conjunction with the monsoon could be some of the key mitigating factors. However, determining the extent of the monsoon’s role in fire occurrence has not been well quantified or documented in either the climate or fire communities. In addition to the complicated characteristics of the monsoon, one of the chief problematic issues in investigating the firemonsoon relationship is the interannual variability of both fire occurrence and the monsoon itself. The monsoon attributes of onset, strength and duration are not yet at a high degree of reliable predictability, in part because the monsoon’s mechanisms are not fully understood (e.g., Mitchell et al 2002). The ‘official’ definition of the onset from the Phoenix National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) in Phoenix, Arizona is a dew point of 55 degrees or higher for 3 consecutive days (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Phoenix/general/55degree/ index.html). There are other definitions, though unofficial, using atmospheric and non-atmospheric variables. Higgins et al. (1997) developed a gridded precipitation index for most of Arizona and western New Mexico using +0.5 mm precipitation per day for 3 consecutive days as the onset. A recent study by Mitchell et al. (2002) has quantitatively related seasurface temperatures in the Gulf of California to the onset, amount, and regional extent of monsoonal rainfall. A non-disputable outcome of a well-developed monsoon is an increase in atmospheric moisture for most areas of the southwestern U.S. Given the topographical and elevational differences, the degree of increase will vary from one area to the next. The climatological increase in atmospheric moisture for southeastern Arizona is graphically displayed in the time series shown in Figure 1. Superimposed with the dew point climatology is the corresponding fire start (both human and lightning caused) time series. The curves imply an inverse relationship between dew point and fire occurrence starting around July 7th. This date is the average onset as defined by Phoenix NWSFO. These intriguing curves lead to the question: Is there a relationship between decreasing fires and increasing moisture associated with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon? A superficial glance at these synchronized climatologies would certainly suggest this could be true, but individual years’ fire and dew point patterns often reveal an inconsistency to this climatological pattern. Undoubtedly, the interannual variability of these two variables will complicate the comprehensive picture." @default.
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• W2181569302 date "2003-01-01" @default.
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• W2181569302 title "The Southwest Monsoon and the Relation to Fire Occurrence" @default.
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