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- W2181796703 abstract "Importance of long-term forecasting. We shall identify principal aspects of the importance of longterm socioeconomic forecasting. First, the long-term forecast is a major tool for raising the effectiveness of economic policy, which is particularly important in a period of radical economic reform. Second, the long-term forecast as a systemic, complex, and recurring scientific project fosters the development of methodologies and techniques of socioeconomic research, ensures the development of an appropriate culture of interdisciplinary investigation and its underpinning system of scientific cooperative links. Third, to the extent that the organization of longterm forecast investigations can ensure constructive interaction of science, business, community organizations, and public authorities, as well as broad dissemination of created knowledge, these investigations will help shape a common vision of the socioeconomic development horizon and conditions for effective harmonization of local and common interests with a view to the sociopolitical consolidation of society. Fourth, long-term forecast investigations are instrumental in overcoming technocratic illusions in our vision of the future and promote a humanistic view of social development. According to this view, social, demographic, and environmental well-being parameters will figure ever more importantly in our evaluations of developmental outcomes. By contrast, economic activity parameters will be moving to the background, to be perceived as instrumental parameters, not as meaningful outcomes of socioeconomic development. Finally, one can argue that as the Russian economy is moving to recovery and growth, long-range forecasting turns out to be not only an important research activity but also a source of public optimism; it shifts the question of the future of economy and society from the realm of the catastrophe theory to the realm of theoretical constructs rationalizing positive socioeconomic development options." @default.
- W2181796703 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2181796703 date "2002-01-01" @default.
- W2181796703 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2181796703 title "Long-Term Forecasting: Theoretical and Applied Aspects" @default.
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