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• W2181961945 abstract "Summary 1. There has been growing concern about the debt problem in China, especially with regard to local government finances. In 2013 the Xi Jinping administration responded to this situation by conducting a nationwide audit (“the 2013 audit”). Data from this audit were used to predict the level of central and local government debt at the end of 2013 and 2014. According to these forecasts, while the scale of this debt is expanding, as a percentage of GDP, it is not especially high when compared to debt levels in other countries. 2. From a qualitative perspective, however, there are various fundamental issues relating to local government debt, and a number of problems were identified by the National Audit Office as a result of the audit. First, funding for loan repayments is heavily dependent on the sale of land. Second, there is a heightened risk that repayment plans will be derailed. Third, there have been continual regulatory violations. In addition, a comparison with the first accounting audit of local government debt, the results of which were published in 2011, revealed that “shadow banking” has become the main source of borrowed funds for local governments, and that state-owned enterprises have become major borrowers. This has become a source of increasing concern about local government debt problems. 3. The Chinese government has been focusing on measures to avert (reduce) the risk of bankruptcies among local governments and financial institutions. However, measures to strengthen management of local government financing vehicles and other entities could make it more difficult for local governments to raise finance, causing them to turn to higher-risk sources of finance. 4. The Xi Jinping administration is starting to reform local government finances and taxation systems. Some of the individual measures applied include a gradual increase in issues of local government bonds, and pilot schemes involving the taxation of private homes in some regions. The reforms are based on a policy that calls for stronger debt management and other improvements, while allowing local governments to exercise increased discretion. 5. The benefits of a reasonable increase in local bond issues would include not only the reduction of the risk of financial collapse, but also an improvement in the transparency of debt. Furthermore, since 2014 marks the first bond maturity peak, the government is likely to tolerate the refinancing of local government bonds as high-interest short-term debt as an emergency measure. However, the expansion of local government bond issues could lead to increased moral hazards for senior local government officials. China needs to improve the legal frameworks used to curb ir responsible increases in local government bond issues. 6. Consistency between policies will be a key priority in terms of improving the soundness of local government finances. For example, attempts to replace business taxes with value-added taxes would lead to a decrease in local government tax revenues. In order to avoid impoverishing local government finances, it will be necessary to change tax revenue allocations and take additional steps to strengthen the taxation base. It will also be necessary to secure appropriate tax levies from individual homeowners by simultaneously reforming tax systems relating to house ownership and real estate registration systems. 7. The solution of local government debt problems will require a combination of medium- to long-term reforms and short-term measures, based on an awareness of the possible disadvantages, and accompanied by efforts to ensure policy compatibility. The Xi Jinping administration has few options in terms of the countermeasures that it can deploy, and the difficulty of the problem continues to grow." @default.
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• W2181961945 date "2014-01-01" @default.
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• W2181961945 title "Local Government Debt Structures in China and the Central Government's Response" @default.
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