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• W2182269276 abstract "We consider an experiment where we use the Taylor rule information set, inflation and the output gap, to predict the directional change in monetary policy for the United Kingdom 1992 - 2003. To do this we use a multinomial logit limited dependent variable approach, where the next rate change could be ‘upwards’, ‘downwards’ or ‘no change’. These predictions are compared to the actual outturn, and evaluated against a wider information set, using in-sample and out-of-sample prediction tests. Although the Taylor rule offers a useful summary of ex post monetary reactions its information generates poor predictions of the direction of change compared to a wider information set." @default.
• W2182269276 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2182269276 date "2004-01-01" @default.
• W2182269276 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2182269276 title "Predicting Directional Changes in the UK Interest Rate: The Usefulness of Information from the Taylor Rule Versus a Wider Alternative" @default.
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