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- W2183412338 abstract "Recent empirical work on US elections argues that the observed relationship between exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes is evidence of voter irrationality. In contrast, I develop a theoretical framework which highlights how politician behavior, in the form of eort and corruption, can re- spond to exogenous shocks such as rainfall in South Asia. Rain can aect voters'aggregate income and change an opportunistic politician's incentives to steal from them and be corrupt. Alterna- tively, rainfall can aect production on a politician-landowner's own farm, and therefore change his incentives to put in farm labor versus political eort. The model shows that politicians behave bet- ter (in terms of higher eort and lower corruption) with good rainfall when there is an incumbency advantage, and behave worse with good rainfall when there is an incumbency disadvantage. Using data from both Indian and Pakistani parliamentary elections, I show that rainfall is signi…cantly positively related to politician re-election in times of incumbency advantage and negatively related to re-election in times of incumbency disadvantage. These results are consistent with a rational voter response to changes in politician behavior. Evidence using development fund spending and politician occupations suggests that politician behavior works via the eort mechanism." @default.
- W2183412338 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2183412338 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W2183412338 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2183412338 title "Voter Rationality and Politician Incentives: Exploiting Luck in Indian and Pakistani Elections 1" @default.
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