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- W2183552442 abstract "This thesis studies the influence factors for takeover prediction and the potential to generate abnormal returns based on takeover probabilities in the European market. A takeover prediction model is developed using conditional logit regression and a sample of 856 target and 18,808 non-target observations from 1996 to 2010. Studying the sixth merger wave and the differences between the markets of the United Kingdom (UK) and Continental Europe (CE) is new to this research area. The empirical analysis finds significant negative influences of sales growth, EBITDA-margin, current ratio and industry disturbances as well as positive relations of P/E-ratio and UK-firms on takeover probability. An out-of-sample test for 2011 and 2012 finds a predictive accuracy of 75.5% for the model, identifying 54% of targets and 76% of non-targets correctly. The derived yearly-rebalanced long-only investment strategy for the high takeover probability decile generates market-adjusted returns of 9.7% p.a. for the European market sample over the last 17 years. The results show large differences for both, this strategy and for takeover announcement returns between UK and CE targets." @default.
- W2183552442 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2183552442 creator A5067916723 @default.
- W2183552442 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W2183552442 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2183552442 title "Predicting Takeover Targets - An Empirical Analysis of the European Market" @default.
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