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• W2183618044 abstract "With the exception Brander and Drazen (2008), who use a comprehensive cross-country database consisting of both developed and developing countries, the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections has been tested exclusively for the developed countries (e.g., Ray Fair 1978). But since sustained rapid growth offers the prospect of pulling vast numbers of the voters out of poverty within a generation, such an effect is far more likely to be present in the developing rather than developed countries. In this paper, we offer the first test of the hypothesis on a large developing and poor country, India, which has seen its economy grow 8 to 9 percent recently. We first generalize the Fair model to allow for multiple candidates instead for just two and then test it using crossstate data. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections. Specifically, we use the data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections and show that the candidates of incumbent parties in high-growth states have much better prospects of victory than those in low-growth states. * The authors are at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi and Columbia University, New York. They can be reached at pgupta.nipfp@gmail.com and ap2231@columbia.edu, respectively. We would like to thank Laveesh Bhandari for sharing the data for social and economic indicators of the constituencies with us, the participants of the conferences “Indian Economic Policies and Outcomes at Columbia, New York on November 4-6, 2010, “Trade, Poverty, Inequality and Democracy” at the National Council on Applied Economic Research, New Delhi on March 31-April 1, 2011 and of the Annual Growth and Development Conference at ISI, Delhi for many useful comments. Ganesh Manjhi and Anjum Khalidi provided excellent research assistance. Work on this paper has been supported by Columbia University’s Program on Indian Economic Policies, funded by a generous grant from the John Templeton Foundation. The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation. 3 Table of" @default.
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• W2183618044 title "Columbia Program on Indian Economic Policies" @default.
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