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- W2185393330 abstract "Forecasting voting outcomes has a long history, particularly in the case of US presidential elections and papal elections. The difference between these types of voting is that the former is open to a very large number of electors and to public scrutiny while the latter is closed, in the sense of a small number of decision-makers whose choices are shrouded in layer of secrecy. This paper examines the second type of decision-making, using the 2012 US Supreme Court consideration of the Affordable Care Act to assess the relative efficacy of different methods of forecasting the outcome of these closed decisions in advance of their declaration. While the success rate of each of these methodologies has been somewhat patchy, the degree and detail of information provided by an examination of the various forecasts and the actual outcome of this caseprovides insights which might usefully improve forecasts of future decisions." @default.
- W2185393330 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2185393330 creator A5078317275 @default.
- W2185393330 date "2014-12-01" @default.
- W2185393330 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2185393330 title "THE US SUPREME COURT AND THE 'AFFORDABLE CARE ACT': AN EXERCISE IN CLOSED-DOOR FORECASTING" @default.
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