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- W2185869312 abstract "This dissertation uses a total of 300 days of political polling data and 1,981 days of Intrade.com market data to evaluate the relative accuracy of Intrade’s predictions for the 2004 and 2008 Democratic presidential nomination contests, as well as the efficiency characteristics of the contract prices on the exchange. For all periods analyzed, market prices tend to be superior predictors of the ultimate winner of the two Democratic presidential nomination contests, as well as delivering stronger signals about who the winner would be when making correct predictions but similar signals about the winner when making incorrect predictions. Differences in variance between market prices and polls do not appear to explain this difference in predictive power. Pricing anomalies for closing prices are frequent, but tend to be corrected on the following trading day. Internal coherence metrics suggest that the 2008 market was likely more efficient than the 2004 market, although differences in liquidity between the two markets cannot explain the difference in efficiency." @default.
- W2185869312 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2185869312 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W2185869312 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2185869312 title "Intrade Prediction Market Accuracy and Efficiency: An Analysis of the 2004 and 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Contests" @default.
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