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- W2186928070 abstract "Hannah et al. (1) recently published a com-prehensive study showing substantial im-pacts of climate change on viticultural suit-ability, leading to potential ecological issues.We agree that expansion of viticulture intonew areas can lead to a decrease in biodiver-sity and that an increase in water use forirrigation might lead to major freshwaterconservation impacts. However, we disagreewith the alarming statement that suitabilityfor winegrowing of main wine-producingareas worldwide will dramatically decreaseoverthenext40y.Wepointoutmajormeth-odological flaws in ref. 1, mostly linked to ( i)themisuseofbibliographicaldatatocomputesuitabilityindex,(ii)underestimationofadap-tations of viticulture to warmer conditions,and (iii) the inadequacy of the monthly timestep in the suitability approach.The suitability index in ref. 1 is mainlycompiled from grapevine maturity groupingsasdefinedbyJones(ref.2isawrongcitation;thisclassificationisgiveninref.3)andGlad-stones[(4),notpeer-reviewed].Inrefs.3and4, groupings were constructed from empiri-cal observations collected in premium wine-growing areas and not based on grapevinephysiological modeling. We argue that it isverydifficulttoestablishpreciseupperlimitsby variety for growing high-quality winesand that those given in ref. 3 are underesti-mated.Toillustratethisaspect,wecomparedaveragegrowingseasontemperature(AvGST)from 1971 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2012 forthree major wine-growing regions (Fig. 1):Rheingau(Germany),Burgundy(France),andRhoneValley(France).Burgundycon-tinues to produce great wines with Pinotnoir since 2000, although AvGST is alreadyabove the upper temperature limit citedin ref. 3. The same is true for Rheingauwith Pinot gris and the Rhone Valley withSyrah. High-quality viticulture is sustained inthese regions despite increased temperaturesanddryfarming,becauseofboththeevolutionof consumer’s preferences and implementa-tion of adaptative strategies by growers.Amajorflaw in ref. 1 is that noncappedgrowingdegreedays(GDDs)arecomputedand subsequently compared with varietalmaturity groupings from ref. 4, whereinGDDs are capped at 19 °C [called biologi-cally effective degree days (BEDDs)]. Asthe climate becomes warmer, the seasonaldifference between BEDDs and noncappedGDDs increases up to several hundreds ofDDs. Hence, projected ripeness in ref. 1 isweeks ahead when compared with ripenessproperly estimated using ref. 4. This sub-sequently results in much higher temper-atures during the projected last monthbefore ripeness, which was the main crite-rionusedinref.1toconsideraregionsuit-able for viticulture or not.A monthly time step was used in ref. 1.One month accounts for up to 270 BEDDs.When varieties are compared in maturitygroupings that are 50 DDs apart, this reso-lution is too crude to yield reliablematuritypredictions.Hannah et al. make an interesting point inpredicting which regions worldwide maybecome suitable for viticulture by 2050 asa consequence of climate change, and inestimating related potential ecological impact.However, their conclusion that most of thepresent wine-growing regions will becomeunsuitable for viticulture is erroneous.Cornelis van Leeuwen" @default.
- W2186928070 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2186928070 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W2186928070 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2186928070 title "Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by 2050" @default.
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