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- W2192282983 abstract "According to scholars, certain groups are disproportionately likely to be on the losing side of American elections and to face serious consequences in terms of representation as a result. Using ANES and a new, merged ANES/United States Historical Election Returns datasets, this paper revisits this question with a longitudinal analysis of presidential, senate, and congressional vote returns for key political groups. Unlike previous studies, this analysis links actual election returns to voters’ electoral choices with the multi-faceted characteristics that ANES requests.Using linear probability models in a longitudinal framework, I find that blacks are more likely than non-blacks to be on the winning side of American congressional and senate elections, but more likely to be on the losing side of presidential elections. While the finding related to presidential voting fits with previous literature, the senate and congressional finding sheds new light on the story of minority voting in American politics. Additionally, many of the key constituent groups that make up American political parties do not fare as well as expected. Northern white Protestants, for example, are more likely than the rest of the sample to be on the losing end of American senate and congressional elections, while Catholics are more likely than the rest of the sample to be on the losing end of congressional elections. This result suggests that Catholics may not have benefitted electorally from a movement toward the Republican Party.Last, political interest plays a profound role in determining whether blacks are going to be on the winning side of American elections. High political interest blacks are much more likely than all others in the ANES/USHER sample to be on the winning side of American senate and congressional elections. This finding suggests that political campaigns should specifically target minority voters, in order to facilitate turnout, political information, and voting among minority populations. Additionally, political campaigns should target high political interest blacks, since they are the vote win leaders in the black population and the sample at large." @default.
- W2192282983 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2192282983 date "2012-01-01" @default.
- W2192282983 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2192282983 title "The Politics of Descriptive Representation: Revisiting Winning and Losing Groups in American Elections" @default.
- W2192282983 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2118742" @default.
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