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• W220123382 abstract "Second Quarter 1989 According to the June survey of 17 professional forecasters taken by the NBER and the American Statistical Association, real GNP is expected to grow 2.9 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 1990. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to fall from 5.5 percent (annual rate) in 1989:2 to 4.9 percent in 1990:2. Short-term interest rates are predicted to average 7.5 percent in 1990, down from about 8.5 percent now, while the forecasters believe that long-term rates will change little. The growth and inflation forecasts represent small upward revisions, and the interest rate forecasts represent small downward revisions, compared with the levels specified by the group three months ago. High Degree of Consensus That a Slowdown Is Developing Of the five median forecasts of the annual growth rates in the economy's output for 1989:2-1990:2, the highest is 2.2 percent (1990:1), while the others fall in the range of 1.1-1.6 percent. Two of the 17 respondents predict declines in real GNP for two successive quarters between 1989:4 and 1990:2; two others predict single-quarter declines. Among the 85 forecasts of quarter-to-quarter real GNP change, six are negative and 19 are positive but less than 1 percent. The annual forecasts still indicate a substantial slowdown rather than a recession. The range of the individual predictions for 1988-9 is 2.5-4.1 percent; the mean is 3.0 percent; the standard deviation is 0.5 percent. The corresponding statistics for 1989-90 are 0.5-4.0 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1.0 percent, respectively. All but three of the respondents anticipate reductions in growth next year, but none sees an actual decline on an annual basis. Forecasters are asked regularly what probabilities they attach to an array of possible relative changes in national output. The distribution of the resulting means confirms the prevalent expectation that a slowdown is underway: Percentage Change in Real GNP 1988-9 1989-90 4.0 percent or more 8 4 2.0-3.9 percent 70 39 0-1.9 percent 18 44 Negative 4 13 No Serious Deterioration in Outlook for Recession and Unemployment There is no significant change from the previous survey in the estimated probabilities that national output will decline. The means based on the individual probability distributions double from 14 percent for 1989:2 to 28 percent for 1990:2. Most forecasters think the chances of a recession are not very high, but a few believe otherwise. The prevailing expectation is that the unemployment rate will increase only moderately. The medians (and means) are 5.6 percent in 1990:2 and 5.7 percent in 1990, with standard deviations of four-tenths of one percentage point. The corresponding highest forecasts are 6.3 percent and 6.5 percent. Uncertain Forecasts of Flat or Lower Inflation The GNP implicit price deflator (IPD) is predicted to rise 4.7 percent in 1988-9, 4.6 percent in 1989:2-1990:2, and 4.4 percent in 1989-90. The group's forecasts of CPI inflation are 5.1 percent for both 1989 and 1990, up from 4.1 percent in 1988 but down from the 5.5 percent estimate for 1989:2. More respondents predict lower inflation in 1990 than in 1989 than those who predict the reverse. The same applies to the comparisons between 1989:2 and 1990:2, but the majorities and the differentials are not large. [Tabular Data Omitted] However, most forecasters are quite uncertain about whether inflation will moderate or stay at about the same level next year. The mean probability distributions of relative changes in IPD naturally show a greater dispersion in the predictions for 1990 than 1989, but they give no indication of a change in the implied expected values (which are close to 5 percent for both years). Percentage Change in IPD 1988-9 1989-90 8 percent or more 2 4 6. …" @default.
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• W220123382 date "1989-06-22" @default.
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• W220123382 title "Second Quarter 1989" @default.
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