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• W2201340094 abstract "While research on water-use efficiency typically focuses on improving day-to-day water-use decisions, longer-term investments in new technology have the greatest potential for sustaining water conservation. Employing a real options approach, this study evaluates the decision to invest in water-saving infrastructure in the face of technical, as well as water supply uncertainty. An agent must determine whether and when to invest in water-saving technology in order to maximize his water-use efficiency and subsequent water-savings gains. The study extends previous research on the effect of stochastic water prices and emerging water markets on the adoption of modern irrigation technology by Carey and Zilberman (2002) 2 in three ways. First, it illustrates a way of incorporating water-price uncertainty based on readily available stream flow data. Second, it investigates the influence of a market exit condition on the decision to invest in new technology. Third, it allows for an explicit consideration of uncertainty in technical efficiency. A numerical solution procedure is used to allow for both sources of uncertainty. A key finding of this study is that the price at which one would not produce might be a more important consideration in water-saving investment decisions that 1 Paper Co-author: Dr. Charles Sims 2 This study acknowledges and builds off the investment model put forward by Carey and Zilberman (2002) and refers amply to their model for comparison and juxtaposition. 6 previously thought. Relaxing the assumption of a negligible probability of the price of water exceeding the upper bound required to continue production, we find that agents are even less likely to invest when they are provided the option to exit the market in addition to the uncertainties they face. The significant impact of this relaxation suggests that analyses done with the implicit assumption of no market exit may engender spurious conclusions and policy suggestions, as well as suboptimal investment decisions. The study also confirms that uncertainty generally stalls investment in both farm and mesoscale investments, and that the incorporation of a second source of uncertainty compounds this investment inertia in the face of uncertainty. While unsurprising in itself, this result has interesting research and policy implications. It hints at the potential value identification of additional sources of uncertainty and their relative imports on investment decisions may have by way of informing which sources of uncertainty would yield the best bang for policy buck. Thus, a careful identification and consideration of all significant sources of uncertainty and their relative impacts on investment outcomes should be undertaken in determining which particular sources of uncertainty research efforts and policy dollars should prioritize in order to better inform investment decisions to attain desired outcomes." @default.
• W2201340094 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2201340094 creator A5058650287 @default.
• W2201340094 date "2015-01-01" @default.
• W2201340094 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2201340094 title "Water Decision-Making Under Uncertainty" @default.
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