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- W2206061616 abstract "The US economy has been expanding moderately since the official end of the Great Recession in 2009. The budget deficit has been steadily decreasing, inflation has remained in check, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7 percent. The restrictive fiscal policy stance of the past three years has exerted a negative influence on aggregate demand and growth, which has been offset by domestic private demand; net exports have had only a negligible (positive) effect on growth. As Wynne Godley noted in 1999, in the Strategic Analysis Seven Unsustainable Processes, if an economy faces sluggish net export demand and fiscal policy restrictive, economic growth becomes dependent on the private sector's continuing to spend in excess of its income. However, this continuous excess not sustainable in the medium and long run. Therefore, if spending were to stop relative to income, without either fiscal relaxation or a sharp recovery in net exports, the impetus driving the expansion would evaporate and output could not grow fast enough to stop unemployment from rising. Moreover, because growth so dependent on rising private the real economy is at the mercy of the stock market to an unusual extent. As proved by the crisis of 2001 and the Great Recession of 2007-09, Godley's analysis turned out to be correct. Fifteen years later, the US economy appears to be going down the same road again. Postrecession, foreign demand still weak and the government maintaining its tight fiscal stance. Once again, the recovery predicted in the latest Congressional Budget Office report relies on excessive private sector borrowing, and once again, the recovery at the mercy of the stock market. Given that the income distribution has worsened since the crisis--continuing a 35-year trend--the burden of indebtedness will again fall disproportionally on the middle class and the poor. In order for the CBO projections to materialize, households in the bottom 90 percent of the distribution would have to start accumulating debt again in line with the prerecession trend while the stock of debt of the top 10 percent remained at its present level. Clearly, this process unsustainable. The United States now faces a choice between two undesirable outcomes: a prolonged period of low growthsecular stagnation--or a bubble-fueled expansion that will end with a serious financial and economic crisis. The only way out of this dilemma a reversal of the trend toward greater income inequality." @default.
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- W2206061616 date "2014-04-01" @default.
- W2206061616 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2206061616 title "Is Rising Inequality a Hindrance to the US Economic Recovery" @default.
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